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Neural Foundry's avatar

The Merck analysis gets at something the market keeps missing- people treat patent cliffs like instant death, but the reality is way more gradual. I've been tracking their ADC portfolio and the stuff in phase 2 looks legit, especially when you consider how underbuilt that space still is compared to what's coming for solid tumors. What really shifts the math imo is how much buffer time they have between Keytruda peak and anygenuine erosion kicking in hard. That's not just "manage the decline" territory, that's actual runway to get new assets contributing. The market tends to price binary outcomes when teh real world is way messier and frankly more forgiving than that.

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Neural Foundry's avatar

Solid analysis on the data center buildout angle. The pairing of EMCOR and Comfort Systems in the same list makes a lot of sense given how interrelated their work is on these massive hyperscale projects, but I found it intresting how the article frames EME's edge as being the sticky service contracts post-install. From what I've seen working adjacent to these builds, the real margin expansion comes when they bundle the electrical/mechanical work with ongoing energy optimization consulting that starts abot 18 months after project completion. That layer of value-add keeps them embedded much deeper than just maintenance contracts, especially as clients get more paranoid about uptime costs.

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